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Side 156

Macroeconomics

Economies studied at aggregate scale: how production, employment, prices, credit and policy interact across business cycles and long-run growth.

output→income→demand→prices→policy
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Aggregate production becomes aggregate income and expenditure.

National accounting provides consistent identities, while interpretation requires behavioral models.

01 · GDP

Measure final production within an economy.

Real and nominal GDP separate quantity change from price change.

02 · Income

Track payments generated by production.

Wages, profits and other incomes mirror production from another accounting perspective.

03 · Consumption

Represent household spending.

Consumption responds to income, wealth, expectations and credit conditions.

04 · Investment

Add productive capacity and inventories.

Investment is volatile because it depends strongly on expected future returns and financing.

Short-run fluctuations involve demand, production, employment and prices.

Shocks propagate through contracts, expectations, inventories, credit and policy response.

01 · Shock

Disturb demand, supply or financial conditions.

The same observed slowdown can arise from different underlying shocks.

02 · Adjustment

Firms and households revise spending and production.

Sticky prices, wages and contracts can delay adjustment.

03 · Unemployment

Reflect unused labor capacity.

Different unemployment measures separate cyclical, structural and frictional components.

04 · Recovery

Reallocate and rebuild activity.

Recovery speed depends on balance sheets, policy, expectations and structural constraints.

Prices and money interact through demand, expectations and financial institutions.

Inflation is a sustained rise in a broad price level, not the price increase of one item.

01 · Price level

Aggregate many prices into an index.

Index construction choices affect measured inflation.

02 · Inflation expectation

Influence wage and price setting.

Expectations can amplify or dampen shocks depending on credibility and institutions.

03 · Money

Provide medium of exchange and liquid store of value.

Modern money includes central-bank liabilities and bank-created deposits.

04 · Interest rate

Price intertemporal borrowing and lending.

Rates influence saving, investment, exchange rates and asset valuation.

Policy stabilizes fluctuations while long-run growth depends on productive capacity.

Fiscal and monetary tools affect demand in the short run but interact with debt, expectations and supply constraints.

01 · Fiscal policy

Change taxes and government spending.

Multiplier effects depend on slack, financing, openness and household behavior.

02 · Monetary policy

Influence financial conditions through central-bank tools.

Transmission works through rates, credit, expectations and asset prices.

03 · Productivity

Raise output per unit of input.

Technology, skills, institutions and capital shape long-run living standards.

04 · Debt sustainability

Relate public obligations to future fiscal capacity.

Debt dynamics depend on interest rates, growth and primary fiscal balances.

Macroeconomic variables move together through accounting identities and behavioral mechanisms. The challenge is separating what must balance by definition from what actually causes adjustment over time.