Side 27 · Research substrate
Scientific publications
Forecasting converts uncertainty about future events into probabilities, distributions or scenarios. This layer emphasizes calibration, proper scoring and the cognitive biases that distort intuitive probability judgments.
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—methodological
How to read this layer.
A useful forecast should be evaluated against outcomes over repeated cases. Calibration and sharpness matter together; confidence without scoring and feedback is not evidence of forecasting skill.
DirectAdjacentMethodological
Mass rollout · Wave 2. Mappings are selective and designed to expose the strongest research substrate for this Side.
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